Quantified Uncertainty Research Inst

Nonprofit profile at a glance

EIN
843847921
IRS 990-EZ coverage
2021–2024
Forms available
Form 990 2022, Form 990-EZ 2024, Form 990-N 2019
Location
Berkeley, CA, USA
Phone
2697296104
Rating
77
Verdict
SUPPORTED
Rating confidence
Moderate
Sector
Science and Technology N.E.C.

Official website

Reported finances

Revenue
$91,362
Expenses
$296,388
Assets
$100,315
Liabilities
$1,344

Source: IRS Form 990-EZ. Selected filing: tax year 2024. Amounts in USD.

Leadership & pay

3 people listed

Executive titles in this filing

  • Ozzie Gooen (President)

People named in this filing

  • Ozzie Gooen (President)
  • Ben Goldhaber (Treasurer)
  • Andrew Critch (Secretary)

Selected names, not a complete roster or a statement of current roles. Open leadership details for the complete filed list.

Source: IRS Form 990-EZ. Selected filing: tax year 2024. Names and roles reflect this filing, not necessarily current officeholders.

Overview

Mission

To advance forecasting and epistemics for the aim of improving the long-term future of humanity.

What it reported doing in 2024

QURI researches systematic practices to specify and estimate the most important parameters for the most important or scalable decisions. Research areas include forecasting, epistemics, evaluations, ontology, and estimation. In 2024, the organization launched Squiggle AI, a tool that uses LLMs to write Fermi estimates and cost-effectiveness analyses. The organization supported several research pieces on AI and epistemology, and gave multiple workshops and presentations about QURI tools and research.

Operating model

Revenue model
Donor-supported. 95% of the money available for current operations came from contributions and gifts.
Distribution model
Direct operator. The filing allocates 100% of reported program-service expenses outside its grant, affiliate-payment, and member-benefit lines. This expense classification does not rule out separately announced grant awards.

The verdict

SUPPORTED - The filed numbers largely add up and a large share of available resources goes toward mission work. A relatively small share of total spending goes to programs and expenses are high relative to revenue.

Rating breakdown

  • Financial Efficiency: 68
  • Transparency & Controls: 100
  • Sustainability: 19
  • Growth: 40

Detailed rating inputs

Financial Efficiency

  • Mission deployment rate: 92.2%; rating input score 92
  • Program expense ratio: 28.4%; rating input score 28

Transparency & Controls

  • Consistency checks: 100%; rating input score 100; 52nd percentile among comparable filings
  • Major donor itemization: Yes; rating input score 100

Sustainability

  • Operating margin: -224.4%; rating input score 4; 4th percentile among comparable filings
  • Total-asset coverage ratio: 0.34; rating input score 23; 23rd percentile among comparable filings
  • Liabilities to assets ratio: 0.01; rating input score 28; 28th percentile among comparable filings
  • Officer compensation ratio: 0%; rating input score 56; 56th percentile among comparable filings

Growth

  • Program expense growth: 12.4% per year; rating input score 100; 75th percentile among comparable filings
  • Revenue growth: -18.7% per year; rating input score 0; 15th percentile among comparable filings
  • Asset growth: -7.7% per year; rating input score 0; 20th percentile among comparable filings

Details

  • Where the money goes: 92.2% of revenue deployed · 28.4% of spending went to programs
  • Governance: Filed governance answers
  • Accomplishments: 1 filed program accomplishment · $84K in reported program spending
  • Leadership: top reported pay $0 · 3 people listed
  • Consistency: 7 of 7 current checks pass
  • Schedules: 3 filed schedules
  • Filing history: 3 filing years from 2021 to 2024
  • Contacts: How to reach this organization
  • Money network: 1 filed money-flow record
  • Grant readiness: Federal tax and exclusion status, award history, and grant-maker relationships.
  • People: Everyone the filings name, and which of them the filings identify by more than a name.

Key Signals

Signals prioritize questions for review. They are not findings of misconduct.

  • High — Financial Efficiency: Program expense ratio scored 28/100.
  • High — Sustainability: Operating margin scored 4/100.
  • High — Growth: Revenue growth scored 0/100.
  • High — Sustainability: Total-asset coverage ratio scored 23/100.
  • High — Growth: Asset growth scored 0/100.
  • High — Sustainability: Liabilities to assets ratio scored 28/100.
  • Review — Sustainability: Officer compensation ratio scored 56/100.