Probability Management Inc

Nonprofit profile at a glance

EIN
460572110
IRS 990 coverage
2019–2024
Forms available
Form 990 2024, Form 990-EZ 2018
Location
Palo Alto, CA, USA
Phone
6505206255
Rating
77
Verdict
SUPPORTED
Rating confidence
Moderate
Sector
Employment N.E.C.

Reported finances

Revenue
$93,319
Expenses
$88,090
Assets
$18,469
Liabilities
$1,429

Source: IRS Form 990. Selected filing: tax year 2024. Amounts in USD.

Leadership & pay

4 people listed

Executive titles in this filing

  • SAM SAVAGE (EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR)

Highest reported compensation

  • SAM SAVAGE (EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR): $12,750 total reported compensation

Source: IRS Form 990. Selected filing: tax year 2024. Names and roles reflect this filing, not necessarily current officeholders.

Overview

Mission

Probability management's mission is to advance unambiguous standards for communicating and managing uncertainties as data. The goal is to increase transparency and consistency in reporting and calculating with uncertainties in areas as diverse as finance, energy, pharmaceuticals, banking, the economy, national defense and climate change. The resulting representation of uncertainties must be 1) actionable, in that uncertainties may be used directly in calculations of potential risks and reward across virtually all software platforms. 2) additive, in that uncertainties may be aggregated across the enterprise, and 3) auditable, in that data provenance is maintained with respect to accuracy and security.

What it reported doing in 2024

Probability managment's mission is to advance unambiguous standards for communicating and managing uncertainties as data. The goal is to increase transparency and consistency in reporting and calculating with uncertainties in areas as diverse as finance, energy, pharmaceuticals, banking, the economy, national defense and climate change.

Operating model

Revenue model
Mixed. Its operating money came from several sources; no one source provided a clear majority.
Distribution model
Direct operator. The filing allocates 100% of reported program-service expenses outside its grant, affiliate-payment, and member-benefit lines. This expense classification does not rule out separately announced grant awards.

The verdict

SUPPORTED - A large share of available resources goes toward mission work and the filed numbers largely add up. Some filing-based governance responses are negative or unanswered and program spending has declined or grown slowly.

Rating breakdown

  • Financial Efficiency: 80
  • Transparency & Controls: 92
  • Accountability: 69
  • Sustainability: 36
  • Growth: 40

Detailed rating inputs

Financial Efficiency

  • Mission deployment rate: 87.6%; rating input score 88
  • Program expense ratio: 92.8%; rating input score 93
  • Fundraising efficiency: Limited

Transparency & Controls

  • Consistency checks: 100%; rating input score 100; 63rd percentile among comparable filings
  • Pay-setting controls: Limited
  • Foreign activity oversight: Limited
  • Grant itemization coverage: Limited
  • Major donor itemization: Yes; rating input score 100
  • Related-party transparency: Limited

Accountability

  • Independent voting board: 100%; rating input score 100; 64th percentile among comparable filings
  • Governance controls: 2 of 8 controls in place; rating input score 25
    • Conflict-of-interest policy: Fail
    • Whistleblower policy: Fail
    • Document-retention policy: Fail
    • CEO compensation review process: Fail
    • Other executive compensation review process: NotApplicable
    • Form 990 shared with the board: Pass
    • Board meeting minutes documented: Pass
    • Audit committee oversight: Missing
    • Independent financial-statement audit: Fail

Sustainability

  • Operating margin: 5.6%; rating input score 61; 61st percentile among comparable filings
  • Total-asset coverage ratio: 0.21; rating input score 11; 11th percentile among comparable filings
  • Liabilities to assets ratio: 0.08; rating input score 19; 19th percentile among comparable filings
  • Officer compensation ratio: 14.5%; rating input score 15; 15th percentile among comparable filings

Growth

  • Program expense growth: -10% per year; rating input score 0; 29th percentile among comparable filings
  • Revenue growth: 4.8% per year; rating input score 100; 77th percentile among comparable filings
  • Asset growth: -3.6% per year; rating input score 0; 24th percentile among comparable filings

Details

  • Where the money goes: 87.6% of revenue deployed · 92.8% of spending went to programs
  • Governance: 4 of 4 board members independent · 2 of 8 filing controls reported
  • Programs: 1 filed program accomplishment · $82K in reported program spending
  • Leadership: top reported pay $13K · 4 people listed
  • Consistency: 22 of 22 current checks pass
  • Schedules: 4 filed schedules · includes major donors
  • Filing history: 5 filing years from 2019 to 2024
  • Contacts: How to reach this organization
  • Money network: 6 filed money-flow records
  • Grant readiness: Federal tax and exclusion status, award history, and grant-maker relationships.
  • People: Everyone the filings name, and which of them the filings identify by more than a name.

Key Signals

Signals prioritize questions for review. They are not findings of misconduct.

  • High — Accountability: Governance controls: 5 of 7 not reported.
  • High — Growth: Program expense growth scored 0/100.
  • High — Sustainability: Total-asset coverage ratio scored 11/100.
  • High — Growth: Asset growth scored 0/100.
  • High — Sustainability: Officer compensation ratio scored 15/100.
  • High — Sustainability: Liabilities to assets ratio scored 19/100.