Forecasting Research Institute

Nonprofit profile at a glance

EIN
920693558
IRS 990 coverage
2022–2025
Official website data refreshed
Sep 2026
Forms available
Form 990 2025
Location
Claymont, DE, USA
Phone
3024922485
Rating
71
Verdict
SUPPORTED
Rating confidence
Moderate
Sector
Public, Society Benefit N.E.C.

Official website

Reported finances

Revenue
$9,328,264
Expenses
$4,429,518
Assets
$10,072,595
Liabilities
$27,699

Source: IRS Form 990. Selected filing: tax year 2025. Amounts in USD.

Leadership & pay

9 people listed

Executive titles in this filing

  • JOSHUA ROSENBERG (CEO & TREASURER)
  • PHILIP TETLOCK (PRESIDENT)

Highest reported compensation

  • JOSHUA ROSENBERG (CEO & TREASURER): $197,443 total reported compensation
  • BRIDGET WILLIAMS (SENIOR RESEARCH MANAGER): $145,446 total reported compensation
  • EDWARD CONNACHER MURPHY (RESEARCH MANAGER): $115,841 total reported compensation

Source: IRS Form 990. Selected filing: tax year 2025. Names and roles reflect this filing, not necessarily current officeholders.

Overview

Mission

To advance the science and practice of forecasting to improve decision-making under uncertainty.

What it reported doing in 2025

Fri designed and ran many scientific experiments and expert elicitation surveys, and published 8 academic papers and technical reports all available on fri's website. Research focuses include surveys of experts beliefs about development economics, bioweapon use, and risks from artificial intelligence. Fri improved and maintains a benchmark of ai progress, called forecastbench, measuring the accuracy of ai systems on automated forecasting tasks. Fri also launched a longitufinal panel of ai experts, a three-year project tracking the views of leading computer scientists, ai industry professionals, policy researchers, and economists on the trajectory of artificial intelligence.

Operating model

Revenue model
Donor-supported. 99% of the money available for current operations came from contributions and gifts.
Distribution model
Direct operator. The filing allocates 96% of reported program-service expenses outside its grant, affiliate-payment, and member-benefit lines. This expense classification does not rule out separately announced grant awards.

The verdict

SUPPORTED - A large share of total spending goes to programs and the filed numbers largely add up. A relatively small share of available resources goes toward mission work and the filing reports few safeguards for money sent abroad.

Rating breakdown

  • Financial Efficiency: 62
  • Transparency & Controls: 73
  • Accountability: 79
  • Sustainability: 74
  • Growth: 100

Detailed rating inputs

Financial Efficiency

  • Mission deployment rate: 40.7%; rating input score 41
  • Program expense ratio: 84.9%; rating input score 85
  • Fundraising efficiency: $285.96 raised per $1 spent on fundraising; rating input score 94; 94th percentile among comparable filings

Transparency & Controls

  • Consistency checks: 100%; rating input score 100; 63rd percentile among comparable filings
  • Pay-setting controls: 4 of 6 controls in place; rating input score 67
    • Compensation committee: Missing
    • Independent consultant: Missing
    • Other Form 990s reviewed: Pass
    • Written employment contract: Pass
    • Compensation survey or study: Pass
    • Board or committee approval: Pass
  • Foreign activity oversight: 0 of 8 controls in place; rating input score 0
    • Claims monitoring procedures: Fail
    • Requires narrative reports: Fail
    • Conducts field audits: Fail
    • May suspend future funding: Fail
    • Requires financial reports: Fail
    • Conducts site visits: Fail
    • Requires grant agreements: Fail
    • May require repayment: Fail
  • Grant itemization coverage: 100%; rating input score 100; 75th percentile among comparable filings
  • Major donor itemization: Yes; rating input score 100
  • Related-party transparency: Limited

Accountability

  • Independent voting board: 80%; rating input score 80; 16th percentile among comparable filings
  • Governance controls: 7 of 9 controls in place; rating input score 78
    • Conflict-of-interest policy: Pass
    • Whistleblower policy: Pass
    • Document-retention policy: Pass
    • CEO compensation review process: Fail
    • Other executive compensation review process: Fail
    • Form 990 shared with the board: Pass
    • Board meeting minutes documented: Pass
    • Audit committee oversight: Pass
    • Independent financial-statement audit: Pass

Sustainability

  • Operating margin: 52.5%; rating input score 91; 91st percentile among comparable filings
  • Total-asset coverage ratio: 2.27; rating input score 62; 62nd percentile among comparable filings
  • Liabilities to assets ratio: 0; rating input score 85; 85th percentile among comparable filings
  • Officer compensation ratio: 15.3%; rating input score 22; 22nd percentile among comparable filings

Growth

  • Program expense growth: 70.4% per year; rating input score 100; 98th percentile among comparable filings
  • Revenue growth: 32.8% per year; rating input score 100; 95th percentile among comparable filings
  • Asset growth: 24.3% per year; rating input score 100; 89th percentile among comparable filings

Details

  • What they do: Mission, programs, and operating context captured from the official website.
  • Where the money goes: 40.7% of revenue deployed · 84.9% of spending went to programs
  • Governance: 4 of 5 board members independent · 7 of 9 filing controls reported
  • Programs: 1 filed program accomplishment · $3.8M in reported program spending
  • Leadership: top reported pay $197K · 9 people listed · 4 of 6 pay-setting controls reported
  • Consistency: 32 of 32 current checks pass
  • Schedules: 7 filed schedules · includes major donors, foreign activity, grants, and executive pay
  • Filing history: 4 filing years from 2022 to 2025
  • Contacts: How to reach this organization
  • Money network: 8 filed money-flow records
  • Related organizations: 3 filed related-organization links
  • Grant readiness: Federal tax and exclusion status, award history, and grant-maker relationships.
  • People: Everyone the filings name, and which of them the filings identify by more than a name.
  • Staff and benefit plans: Retirement and health plans the organization files with the Department of Labor, and the people in them.

Key Signals

Signals prioritize questions for review. They are not findings of misconduct.

  • Moderate — Financial Efficiency: Mission deployment rate scored 41/100.
  • High — Transparency & Controls: Foreign activity oversight: 8 of 8 not reported.
  • Review — Accountability: Governance controls: 2 of 9 not reported.
  • High — Sustainability: Officer compensation ratio scored 22/100.